Early birds get the cutts and graylings

*UPDATE 2/23: Nevermind. 

If you think my co-worker Larry is crazy for beginning his mountain-lake exercise regimen in January this year, you might miss this boat this summer.

As predicted by some weather outlets, El Nino has given the Northern Rockies a warm, dry winter. While we are enjoying the mild weather, it has negative implications for our fishing summer.
Here in southwestern Montana, expect an early and brief runoff. Our low snowpack (see below) coupled with expected continued warmth and dryness indicates that relatively little water is in the mountains to melt into streamflow when the mountains thaw in April and May. In good water years, runoff in valley-bottom mainstems can last well into July, but in a year like this, it's not uncommon for it to be over in early June.

It doesn't look too terrible, but these numbers are expected to get worse as we proceed into spring. NOTE: When looking up snowpack data, tis better to use the "snow-water equivalent" snowpack data than the current-year precipitation data. It more accurately reflects the amount of water that will melt into the streams. 

Also expect many rivers to go under Hoot-owl Restrictions by late July/early August. Hoot-owl Restrictions are rules put into place by Montana Fish Wildlife and Parks that legally limit when anglers can fish in a given river or drainage. Once announced, the affected rivers are closed from 2pm to midnight. This affects vacation schedules for tourists, income for guides, outfitters and fly shops, and plans for resident anglers. If you plan to fish Montana's famous rivers this summer, consider coming in late June or early July.

But of the most interest to types like me, expect mountain lakes to ice off early and maybe be too warm or dewatered in August and September. Exact timing is always a crapshoot and depends on several factors beyond snowpack and ice thickness, like elevation, sun exposure and amount of tributary inflow. But, I will guess that we will be about two to four weeks ahead of the ice-out schedule from my book. And it could be even earlier. Larry told me that in the El Nino year of 1988 (the year Yellowstone burned badly), mountain wildflowers were said to be in bloom in April, about two months early.

Sawtooth Lake in the East Pioneers near Dillon, Montana. Go early. 

In 2019, don't wait for the date that the lake was great last year. Go early, maybe absurdly so.